Kaufman’s Korner 2-6-08

Kaufman’s Korner

Hello all and welcome to another edition of Kaufman’s Korner.

First, I would like to take the time to apologize for not writing since the day before Thanksgiving. I have been in the midst of graduating, moving, starting a job etc so I haven’t had the time, or urge to write. But now that I have settled in, I plan on writing a little bit more often.

In any case there are a lot of things to talk about. The Mets acquiring what many consider to be the best pitcher in baseball for a few high end prospects, some questions the team has going into the 2008 season, and a few basic predictions by yours truly as of this moment.

We all lived to talk about the Johan Santana saga. Nearly 6 weeks long, 20 trade proposals deep, rumor mill spinning more and more everyday, the Mets finally pulled off what many consider to be the biggest trade since Mike Piazza showed up in May of 1998. I think it is a great trade especially since the Mets got to hold onto what I believe are the top two prospects they have; Mike Pelfrey and Fernando Martinez. Pelfrey showed signs of coming around at the end of last year, and while Martinez hasn’t had an at bat above AA has one of the highest ceilings of any prospects in baseball. While I do believe that at least 2 of the prospects the Mets gave up will pan out to be solid ballplayers, the Mets did what they had to do to get a big name pitcher.

Johan Santana brings to the Mets 93 wins while just entering his prime, and has pitched at least 200 innings every season since becoming a fulltime starter. Pitching in the American League, he typically would win a minimum of 15 games a year while having an earned run average of around 3.50. Quite incredible considering that if you transfer that over to the National League-a typically weaker hitting league-you can possibly be looking at 18-20 wins with an earned run average at least a run lower. Imagine what that can do to the Mets record? These typical statistics not only make us say “Tom who?” but it takes a lot off a bullpen that you can expect to be worn down if Pedro Martinez throws a lot of pitches, Oliver Perez decides to not throw strikes, and El Duque is on vacation etc.

Now over the past few months Omar Minaya has made a few small moves before the big blockbuster of acquiring Johan Santana. He has signed Matt Wise, Ricardo Rincon, and Ruddy Lugo; all low risk high reward bullpen pitchers. Could these guys take the place of someone like Scott Schowenweis? That’d be amazing, yet doubtful. So while the rotation has a huge upgrade with Santana and a fully healthy (or so we think) Pedro Martinez at the top, the bullpen is still a question and could lead us to those antacid pills that we knew so well last year.

As far as the offense goes, we all know that Paul Lo Duca walked to the Nationals. So we acquired Brian Schneider to platoon with Ramon Castro at catcher; and Ryan Church to play everyday right field. I think Church will be a scrappy player who will give 110% in the field and at the plate. I see this trade panning out very nicely for the Mets, although another I question whether Ramon Castro can handle a full time catching schedule, and if Brian Schneider can hit .250. Other than that, we should see the same typical lineup, with hopefully more production from Carlos Delgado.

Now I will make a few basic predictions of what I would like to see happen.

1. Carlos Delgado will have a bounce back year. I don’t see Carlos Delgado having a year like last year, since his wrist was a major problem with his hitting last year. I believe he will fill in nicely at the number 5 spot and settle into the “secondary” RBI producer role well behind Beltran and Wright.

2. The bullpen will not lead Willie to talk about “Mama days”. I really hope this is true. If we can get a steady 7 innings out of our pitchers, give the ball to Heilman or Sanchez in the 8th inning, and then Wagner in the 9th, it will take a load off the middle relievers. Thank goodness Mota is gone.

3. Johan Santana will win 18-20 games. This is what this guy is getting paid to do. If he gets the run support, expect him to strikeout and set down a lot of lineups 1-2-3.

I hope you enjoyed reading this edition of Kaufman’s Korner. Until next time…